Preparing for the 2026 midterm elections, President Donald Trump’s poll numbers with his constituents have never been lower. A significant portion of that base is preparing to cross over and vote for Democrats, as evidenced by an increasing number of polls.
In five critical states Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas—between 9% and 16% of Republican prospective voters expressed their approval of the Democratic nominee, according to New York Times-Siena College polls released over the weekend. These are not the only polls showing a substantial crossover effect, particularly in the central region of the country.
In total, Democratic candidates have maintained a double-digit lead among GOP voters in four critical Senate races, and they have an average lead of at least 9 points in seven of the top 10 races, as per a CNN review of polling in each state.
Additionally, Democratic candidates appear positioned to capture a significant share of Republican voters who do not identify with Trump’s MAGA movement, typically around one-quarter of the electorate. This data is subject to a critical caveat: Recent presidential elections have understated GOP support due to polling. And there are indications that those failures may have been the result of polls that reached the appropriate number of Republicans in general, but not enough of the party’s most ardent supporters, and by extension, Trump’s.
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